Last season’s Leagues Cup quarterfinals featured some of the strongest teams in the region historically and the biggest stars. Lionel Messi and eventual champion Inter Miami, Denis Bouanga and LAFC, Sergio Canales and Rayados. But there was Querétaro as well, with Mauro Gerk’s squad pushing the Philadelphia Union to the limit.
In a World Cup-style tournament, there often is a dark horse. Whether Croatia in 1998, Turkey in 2002, Canada at this year’s Copa América or the Gallos Blancos in last year’s Leagues Cup, teams will get hot at the right time, punch above their weight and make a run that makes us “experts” look like fools for ever having doubted.
So, allow me to run cover for myself in what will likely be a futile attempt to avoid looking like a fool. Here are six potential dark horses — three from LIGA MX and three from MLS — who may make a deep run in Leagues Cup that almost no one sees coming:
Necaxa
Fans in the U.S. likely will be learning more about Necaxa soon. Wrexham’s celebrity owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds bought into an already star-studded ownership group and are planning to launch a series about the club similar to the one tracking their Welsh squad.
Yet, Necaxa feels like a team that could take center stage even before the series enters post-production. Eduardo Fentanes is one of the few young, Mexican managers currently getting results in LIGA MX and he has a roster that should be able to compete for a playoff spot in the Apertura, in addition to getting good results in Leagues Cup.
Despite rumors of potential departures, both rising star Heriberto Jurado and forward Diber Cambindo — whose eight goals tied him as Liga MX top scorer last season — are in the squad for Leagues Cup. It’s been a brutal start to the season for the Rayos, falling to Tigres and Rayados by 1-0 scorelines. But a 4-1 dismantling of Puebla sandwiched in between could hint at the true potential of this team.
While the Seattle Sounders are getting hot heading into the summer, Minnesota United comes into the tournament struggling. There’s an opening to get out of West 6 and make a run.
Portland Timbers
Though still firmly in the middle of the Western Conference pack, the Timbers have lost just once in their last 10 MLS matches. With an emphasis on chance creation and scoring, they’ve turned into one of the most fun teams to watch in the league not just for the dedicated fans of Timbers Army but also for the neutral who just wants to see some goals.
The addition of Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez up top not only gives the Timbers a player who is getting and converting chances, but also one happy to turn playmaker for Felipe Mora in the middle, Evander behind him or other attacking options. Plus, he’s familiar with what it takes to beat LIGA MX defenders, something that should help against León in West 5 and as the competition goes on.
Atlético de San Luis
A familiar face to MLS fans leads Atletico de San Luis, with manager Domènec Torrent back in North America after leading New York City FC in 2018 and 2019. He later went to South America and most recently managed Galatasaray but has now returned to the Concacaf region.
The team’s attack has been in fine form to start the campaign. Mateo Klimowicz scored a double in a season-opening win over Club América, and Franck Boli and Leo Bonatini also already have opened their accounts.
To make a real dark-horse run, San Luis needs to find solidity at the back without long-time center back Unai Bilbao. Now led by fellow veteran Julio Cesar “Cata” Domínguez, Torrent’s team is yet to keep a clean sheet in LIGA MX. It faces CF Montréal and red-hot Orlando City in East 2.
FC Dallas
It was a rough start to the year for FC Dallas, which parted ways with its manager and promoted assistant coach Peter Luccin to interim coach. The team has responded, earning the Copa Tejas rivalry trophy with its results against fellow Texas squads Austin FC and Houston Dynamo, earning bragging rights. FCD hopes it has improved enough to make a deep run in Leagues Cup as well.
Notably, the Moose is loose, with offseason signing forward Petar Musa scoring 13 goals through his first 21 matches in MLS, including eight goals in his last seven league contests. His acclimation gives FCD an attacking punch it simply hasn’t had, especially with Jesus Ferreira struggling with a hamstring issue and 2023 Leagues Cup standout Alan Velasco still recovering from an ACL tear suffered late last season.
What could trip FCD up? They’re one of only two teams yet to win a league match away from home this season. The other? St. Louis CITY, their groupmates in West 3. Their showdown, however, will take place at CityPark in Missouri, meaning FCD may need to secure a result outside of Texas to move out of the group.
Toluca
Can the Red Devils be a dark horse? It may be a stretch to say a team some fans call the “fifth grande” should be included in a group of strivers, but the reality is it’s been more than a decade since Toluca last lifted a trophy. The recent Clausura was another near-miss, as the team bowed out in the first round of the playoffs despite a season in which it lost just three times.
It only looks to have motivated them more, with the club moving in the offseason to bring in center back Luan from Brazil and signing Portuguese forward Paulinho. He scored three goals in his first three matches with the club — allowing Alexis Vega to get more room in attack — while defenders must account for a deadly central forward in addition to the playmaker working behind him. Toluca also fended off overtures from Ligue 1 for the services of two-way midfielder Marcel Ruiz.
Thiago Volpi, the goalkeeper who takes penalty kicks, remains in net, and Toluca strengthened at the back, bringing in former Mexico left back Jesus Gallardo from Rayados. In a West 4 group against Sporting KC, who Toluca bounced from last year’s tournament in the Round of 32, and the Chicago Fire, it’s a group Toluca will hope to win and use to chase a Concacaf Champions Cup berth.
Atlanta United
Also under an interim manager, the Five Stripes are clearly in a transitional moment. Greek forward Giorgos Giakoumakis will play in Leagues Cup with Cruz Azul, leaving Atlanta in the summer after scoring 24 goals in a year and a half with Atlanta United. Thiago Almada also has moved on.
Yet, there’s still something about this team that make it feel like it could be a factor in this tournament’s format. Saba Lobzhanidze and Daniel Rios both are capable of tormenting opposing defenses, the midfield has experience and, speaking of, Brad Guzan is there in net. Plus, now that the window is open and Atlanta United has money burning a hole in its pocket, you never know who could arrive and make a debut in Leagues Cup.
D.C. United will be the more fancied MLS team to get out of a group that also includes Santos Laguna, but keep an eye on Atlanta United.
Perhaps it will be a tournament dominated by favorites, but as the 2023 Leagues Cup taught us, you have to keep an eye out for anyone who gets hot and makes a run at a CCC spot and the coveted two-bowl trophy.
