By Jon Arnold
Leagues Cup started with dozens of teams, but we’re down to eight. After a back-and-forth Phase One, we have our quarterfinalists - this year an entirely MLS vs. Liga MX slate.
I didn’t win the Leagues Cup Bracket Challenge last year, but I put together a few decent picks. So, I’m again taking a look at the bracket and looking to select a winner - and also pick out which teams are headed to the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup by finishing in one of the top three Leagues Cup places.
Let’s get into it, looking into the crystal ball to see what will happen in the quarterfinal quadruple-header on August 20 and then beyond.
Tigres tips Inter Miami
The quarterfinals start with a pair of teams in very good form. Inter Miami made it through Leagues Cup nearly unblemished, beating Atlas and Pumas and earning a pair of points by winning a shootout after a 2-2 draw with Necaxa - despite going down to 10 men in the 17th minute.
The Herons also have shown in past tournaments that they can win without Lionel Messi - just like they did in that Phase One finale against Pumas with Messi missing because of a knock suffered against Necaxa. Messi also missed a 4-1 loss to Orlando City but trained apart from the team in the build-up to the rivalry contest.
So, plenty hinges on how the Argentine superstar is feeling heading into the match. My hunch? Messi is a big-game player who loves playing in the Leagues Cup spotlight and will try to give it a go.
He’ll face off with a countryman in scintillating form in Angel Correa, who left Atletico Madrid in the summer and scored twice in his Leagues Cup debut, twice in the next match and once in a 7-0 smashing of fellow Leagues Cup quarterfinalist Puebla on Friday night. His moments have opened up space for Diego Lainez and allowed Tigres to be more careful with Andre-Pierre Gignac as the veteran talisman continues to recover from a tendon issue.
With so many attacking superstars on the field for both teams, I look at the back to see if there are difference-makers. We’ve seen Tigres goalkeeper Nahuel Guzman pull off Leagues Cup heroics before while there are more questions about Oscar Ustari - and many more questions about Falcon and Noah Allen in front of him than I have about Juan Jose Purata and Romulo in center defense for Tigres.
There will be goals in this one, but Tigres will get one more.
Orlando City roars past Toluca
Toluca is living a fairy-tale 2025, winning Liga MX for the first time since 2010, earning the right to be Campeon de Campones with a win over Club América and now arriving in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals thanks to victories over CF Montreal and NYCFC after a shootout win over reigning champion Columbus Crew to open the tournament.
Alexis Vega is in generational form, willing Toluca to the title and also winning the Gold Cup with Mexico this summer. Paulinho may be the best finisher to join Liga MX from Europe since Andre-Pierre Gignac.
Yet, if there’s any team that can match the Diablos Rojos punch at this point, it’s Orlando City. Martin Ojeda is pulling off a Vega-esque run that included three goals in Leagues Cup play, plus one assist in each of Orlando’s three matches. Luis Muriel is finishing off scoring moves, and the Orlando defense is starting to come together as well.
If it comes to the spot, Orlando should have the edge with Peruvian pulpo Pedro Gallese in net - though Toluca has gotten good shot-stopping in Leagues Cup as well. I like Orlando to narrowly advance, handing Toluca essentially its first blow of the year.
Seattle stays hot against La Franja
Puebla has earned its place here, and even if La Franja is the surprise team, they’ll be focused on continuing their good run of form and earning a Concacaf Champions Cup place. Even so, a quarterfinal win at Lumen Field may be a bridge too far for Pablo Guede’s team.
After all, in 10 matches since the Club World Cup, the Sounders have won seven and drawn three - including being the only team to win all three of their Phase One matches in Leagues Cup.
And while Puebla was able to get past New York City FC and CF Montreal, it fell to the Columbus Crew in Leagues Cup, conceding three goals unanswered before finding a consolation before the halftime break.
In the end, a pair of 7-0 results are tough to wipe from the mind, though just how relevant they’ll be to the quarterfinal is tough to tell. The Sounders topped Cruz Azul by that margin in Leagues Cup, while Puebla fell to Tigres by the scoreline in its first game back.
It’ll be tighter than that on Aug. 20, but the Sounders will get the win.
A Mexican team secures a CCC place … but not the crown
That sets up a semifinal round that also will be entirely Liga MX vs. MLS, with Orlando City squaring off with Tigres and the Pachuca meeting the Sounders.
The Tigres-Orlando City is particularly spicy, since the teams have recent history. Tigres moved past Orlando City in the 2023 CCC after winning on away goals in a series that ended level at 1-1. The next year, the teams again crossed paths in CCC with Tigres winning 4-2 at El Volcan to move into the quarterfinals.
I like Tigres to do it once again, putting too much pressure on Orlando’s back line for the Lions to deal with.
On the other coast, the Sounders continue to manage games well and deny Victor Guzman and Elias Montiel the chance to do what they do so well in the middle of the park to earn a narrow win.
Another international trophy lift for the Sounders
There are still questions about how the Sounders come together. Their first-choice goalkeeper, Stefan Frei, wasn’t available during Leagues Cup. Other injuries have complicated life for manager Brian Schmetzer.
Yet, watching the Sounders in Phase One - and in any game they’ve played since their gauntlet of a Club World Cup group - there have been reminders about why this team can fly the flag for MLS. There was the 7-0 smashing of Cruz Azul, but even a rally against Tijuana to win 2-1 despite little being on the line for them should the spirit this team has and how they plan to go for every game they have in front of them.
I’ll take the Sounders to win the whole thing with a tight victory over Tigres.
Joining them in the CCC? Give me Orlando City, even with Pachuca fighting for their own CCC qualification rather than playing for a Liga MX brother like Monterrey did in 2023.
